In the last 12 months of this pandemic, it has been shown in continuous polls that support for the First Minister has risen due to her clear and confident performance in leading the country through this uncertain time. Many have suggested that this has led to fanfare around her and with her support being high it seems The SNP won’t be going anywhere any time soon. But, as the Salmond Inquiry comes to its conclusion support for Ms Sturgeon, The SNP, and independence is falling slowly. What does still seem to be strong is the party leader’s support within the SNP. So, is the only way for another party to succeed in Holyrood by booting out Nicola Sturgeon?

Scottish Labour, for one, has really suffered at the hand of The SNP’s rise in popularity. This was very apparent in 2015 when the SNP won all but 3 seats in Scotland at the General Election, meaning Labour lost a substantial 40 seats in Scotland and only retaining one and they are yet to recover. This was the first election in the UK with Nicola Sturgeon as the party leader and the party won 50% of the popular vote despite the recent loss of the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014. It is important to note, however, The SNP had already started to turn over traditionally Labour seats in the Scottish Parliament Elections in 2011. The party became the first government to have a majority in Scotland with a voting system that is designed to output a minority government. This win was led by Alex Salmond, who would later resign following a lost independence campaign. This suggests that in 2015 Scottish voters weren’t necessarily voting for Nicola Sturgeon but the party. Many have contemplated why this huge rise in popularity happened at the time, but simply put, Labour wasn’t appealing to Scottish voters as they had previously. Since Nicola Sturgeon has taken over the helm of the SNP, Scottish Labour has had 4 different leaders and the Scottish Conservatives are on their third. 

As we enter her 7^th year in the role of First Minister of Scotland, she has had a pretty good track record when it comes to popularity – especially among young people. Many have referred to her as inspirational and many people south of the border were even keen to vote for the SNP after a leadership debate in 2015. This last year has been no exception. The world has praised her as one of the most powerful female world leaders and throughout the country support for her has been miles ahead of Boris Johnson in opinion polls. 

In recent weeks the Scottish Tories have put a target on the backs of SNP leadership taking the form of votes of no confidence against John Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon. These motions come after their involvements in the Alex Salmond Inquiry. It is apparent that this vendetta is aimed to try to take the SNP down from the very top, especially right before an election that will decide Scotland’s future majorly. Whilst hugely unethical, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, will it cause people to vote elsewhere?

I asked SNP voters on an Instagram poll, “If Nicola Sturgeon wasn’t the leader of the SNP would you still vote for the SNP?” In my opinion, this is a very loaded question and depends on a lot of different factors. I also asked those who voted to give their reasonings or other opinions as a follow-up. Overall, 74% of people said they would still vote for the SNP if Nicola Sturgeon wasn’t the leader. I did, however, get several messages saying it depends. Most said that it would come down to who replaces her, one person saying, “I love Nicola so the next leader would have to be 10 times better.” Another SNP voter pointed out that there are a lot of variables at play, “Who is the next leader? Is Scotland Independent? Who’s leading the other parties?” He went on to say, “I do think Nicola has a huge personal vote, she won 60% of her constituency vote at the last election.” A current SNP member who holds the same view commented, “if someone like Joanna Cherry or Joan McAlpine was to get anywhere near the leadership, I would leave the party” – this relates to their controversial opinions on the Gender Recognition Act reforms and views on trans issues.  

Those who said “yes” pointed out things like policy platforming being more important. One person believes, “(they) are the best out of a bad bunch that is practical” adding, “otherwise I would vote Greens.” A majority of people who voted yes said that independence was most important but nearly all said it would depend on who took over as leader. On the “no” side one Sturgeon fan said, “I’m scared if she left, the party could head in a different direction.” Adding that she loves the way the leader has progressed the party. It was also said that her “devotion and drive” outweigh the party’s policies. 

The way this poll turned out was very interesting, as I wasn’t entirely sure what to expect. It is important to note that my following is around 70% 18-24 year-olds therefore it is unclear to make an overall claim as older people have far different political priorities than young people. But, if the Tories think giving the boot to Nicola Sturgeon will get them votes, they should think again. Even those who voted no said they would never vote Tory and have lost faith in Labour. It was pointed out, however, that if parliament voted no confidence in Nicola Sturgeon “it would look awful, there’d be this whole narrative about the SNP being untrustworthy.” This suggests that people wouldn’t vote elsewhere because of who was in leadership but depending on how Sturgeon leaves her role as First Minister. 

It is highly doubtful that a vote of no confidence against Nicola Sturgeon will be successful for the Tories, as John Swinney survived his on Thursday following the row over publishing legal papers to an inquiry committee. Swinney survived that with full support from his party and the Greens, with who they are currently in a coalition. It is likely the same will happen with Nicola Sturgeon when her time comes as she has consistently been supported by her party and the Greens throughout her time as First Minister.

No matter what side of the political spectrum you are on, there is no denying that Nicola Sturgeon is an excellent politician. She has a unique talent of grabbing your attention and connecting with people, a skill which many politicians fail to hone. This means it will be interesting how it will play out when Nicola Sturgeon eventually steps down. But until that day arrives, it seems support for the SNP outweighs the support of the leader.